South Bay home price growth may be shifting. See what Cupertino housing trends and Santa Clara County data could mean for buyers and sellers.
If you’ve been watching headlines about home prices, you may feel like you’re getting a different story every week. One day it’s a market slowdown. The next, it’s talk of prices rebounding.
Here in the South Bay, I always remind my clients: national headlines are useful for context, but your real estate decision should be based on what’s happening locally.
That’s where my approach comes in. I like to diagnose the market before recommending a strategy. Just as a doctor wouldn’t make a diagnosis without reviewing the facts, I don’t believe buyers or sellers should make major real estate decisions based on one headline or national average.
Let’s look at what the latest trends could mean—and why the local story matters most.
South Bay Real Estate Market: Are Home Prices Starting To Pick Up?
Nationally, home price growth has slowed considerably over the past couple of years.
According to Redfin, annual price growth had cooled from around 7% in mid-2024. More recently, however, the pace of growth appears to have reached a low point and may be starting to turn upward.
It’s still too early to call this a major shift based on just a few months of data. Real estate trends need time to establish themselves.
But there are other signs worth watching.
Data from ResiClub and Zillow shows that fewer major housing markets are experiencing year-over-year price declines. About 36% of the 300 largest U.S. housing markets had declining prices around the middle of last year. More recently, that share had fallen to approximately 23%.
In other words, more markets are seeing prices stabilize or move higher again.
Experts are also forecasting modest national home price growth for 2026, averaging around 2.3%. If those projections hold, price appreciation may need to strengthen somewhat during the second half of the year.
But before we apply that number to Cupertino, Santa Clara, Sunnyvale, or San Jose, there’s an important caveat.
Real estate is local.
Cupertino Housing Trends and Santa Clara County Are Their Own Story
A national average is made up of hundreds of local housing markets moving in different directions.
Some markets are seeing stronger price growth. Others are relatively flat. Some are still experiencing modest price adjustments.
That’s why I don’t tell a client, “National home prices are up, so your home must be worth more.”
It doesn’t work that way.
When evaluating Cupertino housing trends or the broader Santa Clara County market, I look at the data that directly affects your property or home search:
- Recent comparable sales
- Current homes for sale
- Pending sales
- Days on market
- Price reductions
- Buyer competition
- Inventory in your specific price range
- Neighborhood-level demand
A $1 million market segment can behave very differently from a $2 million or $3 million market segment—even within the same city.
That local diagnosis is much more valuable than trying to make a major decision based on the national average.
More Markets Are Showing Positive Price Movement
According to Redfin, the balance among major metro markets has recently been shifting toward more areas experiencing price gains.
Not long ago, major markets were closer to evenly split between those seeing prices rise and those seeing prices decline. More recently, over half of major metros showed year-over-year price increases.
Cotality Chief Economist Selma Hepp has also emphasized that local markets continue to tell very different stories, with some areas supported by strong job and income growth seeing stronger acceleration.
That point is especially relevant to the South Bay.
Our region has unique factors influencing housing demand, including a strong concentration of technology and innovation, high-income employment, limited land for new development, and highly localized demand by neighborhood and school area.
Of course, those factors don’t mean every home automatically increases in value every year. Pricing and demand still vary by location, condition, and price range.
But they are part of why a local analysis matters so much.
What This Could Mean If You’re Buying
For buyers, slower home price growth has provided something that was hard to find during the frenzy of previous years: time and breathing room.
In some parts of the South Bay real estate market, buyers have had more opportunities to compare homes, negotiate terms, and make decisions without feeling pressured to waive every protection just to compete.
If price growth begins to strengthen locally, that window may not remain the same.
That doesn’t mean you should rush out and buy a home tomorrow. Buying because of fear is not a strategy.
Instead, I recommend looking at your personal situation.
Are you financially prepared? Have you found a neighborhood that fits your lifestyle? Would you be comfortable with the monthly payment? Are you planning to stay long enough for homeownership to make sense for your goals?
These questions matter more than trying to perfectly predict next month’s prices.
My Sunnyvale home buying tips always start with building a personalized plan. Once we understand your budget and goals, we can monitor the specific areas and properties that make sense for you.
Then, if the right opportunity appears, you’re prepared to act.
What This Could Mean If You Own a Home
If you’re already a homeowner, remember that slower price growth does not mean equity growth stopped.
Many homeowners have continued building equity through a combination of home value appreciation over time and paying down their mortgage balance.
If local price growth picks up, that could potentially add to future equity gains.
The National Association of Realtors’ Chief Economist Lawrence Yun has projected that the typical homeowner could gain approximately $16,000 in housing wealth this year. Your actual results, of course, will depend heavily on your local market and individual property.
For South Bay homeowners, the more useful question is:
What is happening to homes like mine, in my neighborhood, right now?
That’s the question I can help answer through a local market analysis.
If you’re thinking about selling, understanding your current position can also help you decide whether this is the right time to make a move. We can evaluate your home’s estimated market value, current competition, buyer demand, and the likely strategy needed to position your home effectively.
Santa Clara Homes for Sale: Pricing Still Matters
One important point for sellers: improving price trends do not mean you can ignore pricing strategy.
Even in a market where values are increasing, buyers still compare your home against every other available option.
When looking at Santa Clara homes for sale, buyers are paying close attention to condition, location, features, and price. If your home enters the market significantly above comparable properties, stronger national or regional price trends won’t automatically bring an offer.
This is why I believe pricing is a diagnostic process.
We examine recent sales, current competition, pending activity, and how buyers are responding in your specific price range.
Then we develop a strategy designed to attract the right level of attention from the beginning.
The goal isn’t to chase the market after listing. It’s to understand the market before we list.
Bay Area Realtor Advice: Watch the Direction, Not Just the Headlines
One of the challenges with housing news is that headlines tend to focus on extremes.
“Prices are crashing.”
“Prices are soaring.”
“The market is back.”
“The market is doomed.”
The truth is usually more nuanced—and frankly, a little less dramatic than the internet would prefer. Real estate doesn’t always provide good clickbait.
Today’s data suggests that national home price growth may be showing early signs of strengthening after a significant slowdown. But that does not mean every South Bay neighborhood will experience the same change at the same time.
My Bay Area realtor advice is to watch the direction of your local market while keeping your own goals at the center of the decision.
For a buyer, modest price growth may make owning sooner more attractive if you’re already financially ready.
For a seller, strengthening demand and price trends could create opportunities—but success still depends on positioning your home correctly.
For a homeowner considering a move, your existing equity and the opportunities available for your next purchase should both be part of the conversation.
Bottom Line
Home price growth slowed significantly, and there are early signs that it may be starting to pick up again.
But the most important number isn’t the national average.
It’s what’s happening with your home, your neighborhood, and your next move here in Santa Clara County.
Whether you’re buying in Sunnyvale, exploring Cupertino housing trends, considering Santa Clara homes for sale, or thinking about selling elsewhere in the South Bay, I’m happy to help you look beyond the headlines.
Let’s review the local data, diagnose what’s happening in your specific market, and build a personalized plan around your goals. That’s how you stay one step ahead—without making decisions based on fear or guesswork.